THE NEXT COST CURVE
Prediction is about to get very, very cheap.
The arithmetic era did not belong to faster bookkeepers. It belonged to digital photography, digital music, and video games. Prediction will create its own new world.
THE ARITHMETIC LESSON
The early winners did not replace human computers.
They imagined what became possible when arithmetic was practically free. The same distinction now separates ordinary AI efficiency from the next economy.
THE OBVIOUS CONSEQUENCE
Old calculations became cheaper.
- Faster payroll
- Cheaper accounting
- Fewer human computers
USEFUL. IMPORTANT. NOT THE REVOLUTION.
THE LARGER CONSEQUENCE
Entirely new categories appeared.
- Digital photography
- Digital music
- Video games
THIS WAS THE REVOLUTION.
Do not ask who prediction replaces. Ask what cheap prediction makes possible.
THE NEXT LEVEL
The first consequence is cheaper artifacts. The larger consequence is new categories.
A book for every customer.
A complete argument predicted for one person’s situation, language, objections, and moment.
A lesson for every student.
One curriculum becomes thousands of paths, each responsive to pace, confusion, curiosity, and progress.
A phone number for every customer.
Every conversation begins with memory, context, and a predicted next need.
Ten blogs per day instead of ten per year.
Prediction creates an edition for every audience and every changing condition.
“What becomes possible when prediction is practically free?”
Arithmetic became abundant. Then the digital world appeared. Prediction is becoming abundant. What appears next will be larger than the work it replaces.