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John Rector

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Tag: forecasting

A road-map style diagram of Braess's network: Home, North, South and Work joined by red and blue roads, with a dashed gold shortcut labeled 4/3, beside the title Everyone Finds the Shortcut.
Cat Links Artificial Intelligence

Everyone Finds the Shortcut

Posted on October 23, 2026October 23, 2026 jsrector

In 1968 Dietrich Braess proved that a new road can make every driver slower without anyone making a mistake. Personal AI agents are about to make his theorem the rule for everything we book, reserve and race for. … readEveryone Finds the Shortcut

Dark cover with the Postel robustness principle quoted under the title Delivered as Understood, with a faint oversized OK glyph in the corner
Cat Links Artificial Intelligence

Delivered as Understood

Posted on October 22, 2026 jsrector

The internet runs on a kindness its own architects now regret: be liberal in what you accept. AI is installing that kindness at every boundary between people — so ambiguity no longer bounces where it is cheap. It arrives polished, and surfaces where it is expensive. … readDelivered as Understood

Dark amber cover with the title Slack Is a Forecast, a faint sigma glyph, and the line: every buffer on Earth is sized to the error of a prediction, never to the prediction itself.
Cat Links Artificial Intelligence, Reality Equation

Slack Is a Forecast

Posted on October 21, 2026 jsrector

Every buffer on Earth is sized to the error of a forecast, never to the forecast itself. AI is shrinking that error everywhere at once — and because surprise has a floor the optimizer cannot see, the economy is giving up its spares faster than the reason for them. … readSlack Is a Forecast

Dark deep-water cover with the title Winning Is Bad News, the kicker The Selection Tax, and a faint oversized 'max' glyph: picking the best of many honest guesses finds the largest error.
Cat Links Artificial Intelligence

Winning Is Bad News

Posted on October 20, 2026 jsrector

The winner of any contest among honest guesses is the guess that overshot the most — three petroleum engineers proved it in deep water in 1971. AI turns every choice into that contest, with fields a thousand deep, and the disappointment built into picking the best of many is becoming the texture of ordinary life. … readWinning Is Bad News

Dark cover with neon grid reading The Surprise Floor: AI is the largest bet ever placed on a predictable world; chaos is the guarantee it cannot win everywhere.
Cat Links Artificial Intelligence, Reality Equation

The Surprise Floor

Posted on October 19, 2026 jsrector

AI is the largest bet ever placed on a predictable world, and it will win everywhere the world is merely complicated. Chaos is the guarantee it cannot win everywhere: there is a floor under surprise, and the floor is where you live. … readThe Surprise Floor

Dark night-watch cover with the title Time Since Last Fix in serif type, the words Last Fix in phosphor green italic, and a faint instrument readout T+63:40 behind the byline
Cat Links Artificial Intelligence, Attention

Time Since Last Fix

Posted on October 18, 2026 jsrector

Dead reckoning compounds error until an observation resets it, and AI just handed everyone a crew that sails for days on a single reading of your intent. The scarce skill is no longer steering the work. It is taking the fix. … readTime Since Last Fix

Warm paper-toned cover reading 'The Warranty on Words' with the subtitle: a market that cannot tell good from bad does not fill with junk — it empties; a large faint 1970 sits in the lower right.
Cat Links Artificial Intelligence, Attention

The Warranty on Words

Posted on October 16, 2026 jsrector

When buyers cannot tell good from bad, Akerlof showed in 1970, the market does not fill with junk — it empties. AI has stripped the warranty that effort used to stamp on every written word, and the markets that ran on unsigned text are about to learn what used cars already knew. … readThe Warranty on Words

Dark cover with concentric rings around a fixed one-hour budget and the title The Day Gets Wider
Cat Links Artificial Intelligence

The Day Gets Wider

Posted on October 15, 2026 jsrector

Humans have spent about an hour a day in motion since we had villages. Every faster vehicle was sold as a way to save time, and every one widened the city instead. AI is the fastest vehicle ever pointed at the mind, and the same law says your day will not get shorter. It gets wider. … readThe Day Gets Wider

A sand-colored cover with the title The Middle of the Beach, a horizontal shoreline line with two dots standing back to back at its midpoint, and the ghosted figure 1929
Cat Links Artificial Intelligence

The Middle of the Beach

Posted on October 14, 2026 jsrector

In 1929 Harold Hotelling proved that two sellers on one shoreline end up back to back at the midpoint — the law behind the sameness of apps, candidates, and now AI assistants. AI is a machine for standing at the midpoint, and once it stands there for free, the law reverses: value runs to the ends of the beach. … readThe Middle of the Beach

Dark cover with the title Better at Everything, the kicker A Prediction, and a large ghosted 1817 in the corner
Cat Links Artificial Intelligence

Better at Everything

Posted on October 13, 2026 jsrector

The machine being better than you at everything was answered in 1817: work is not assigned by who is better, but by what the winner’s hour would have earned elsewhere. As long as the machine’s hour has a price, you will keep work it could do better — and the wage of thinking will be set in the datacenter. … readBetter at Everything

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