Entrepreneur
Actual hires tell us who joined a payroll; job postings do not. AI makes it more important to distinguish access to work from net employment growth before drawing conclusions about rates, inflation, and stocks. … readThe Hiring Signal Has Changed
Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent are not running a coordinated tag team. The Fed wants the long yield left as an honest reading, the Treasury wants it lower, and eight days after the hike the 10-year hit its highest level since 2007. … readTwo Hands on One Curve
China stepped out of the oil market this spring, but mostly by draining its stockpiles, not because of its EVs — and at the same time it held its diesel at home. Now it is stepping back in. … readThe Valve and the Tourniquet
The Federal Reserve cools an economy by making doing nothing pay, raising the hurdle rate every investment must clear. Four years and $8 trillion later, the money is still parked. … readWhy the Cars Never Left