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John Rector

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Tag: Federal Reserve

Cover: Two Hands on One Curve -- the Fed and the Treasury pulling the long end of the yield curve in opposite directions, with the 10-year yield of 5.22 percent in the background
Cat Links Business Advice, Reality Equation

Two Hands on One Curve

Posted on September 25, 2026 jsrector

Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent are not running a coordinated tag team. The Fed wants the long yield left as an honest reading, the Treasury wants it lower, and eight days after the hike the 10-year hit its highest level since 2007. … readTwo Hands on One Curve

Warm paper-toned title card reading The Crown Nobody Wants, with the year 1956 set as a large ghosted numeral behind the text, and the subtitle: Britain's empire fell to compound interest, not to a rival.
Cat Links Papers

The Crown Nobody Wants

Posted on September 8, 2026September 8, 2026 jsrector

Britain’s empire did not fall to a rival. It fell to compound interest, and the dollar happened to be standing nearby. America has now crossed the same line — and this time nobody is standing nearby, which is the more dangerous fact. … readThe Crown Nobody Wants

Dark navy cover with the title The Price of Thirty Years in cream serif, the word Thirty in brass italic, and a faint 30Y glyph in the corner.
Cat Links Business Advice

The Price of Thirty Years

Posted on September 3, 2026September 3, 2026 jsrector

A three-month bill pays 3.92 percent and a thirty-year bond pays 5.27. The gap is the price of thirty years of trust, and this week the market, the Treasury, and gold all said it is not enough. … readThe Price of Thirty Years

Dark violet cover reading Why the Cars Never Left, with three figures beneath it: a 3.63 percent effective fed funds rate, 8.29 trillion dollars parked in cash, and 21 percent growth since the Fed's first rate cut.
Cat Links Business Advice

Why the Cars Never Left

Posted on August 21, 2026September 3, 2026 jsrector

The Federal Reserve cools an economy by making doing nothing pay, raising the hurdle rate every investment must clear. Four years and $8 trillion later, the money is still parked. … readWhy the Cars Never Left

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